Post Jovenel

Jovenel Moise was shot dead in his bedroom around 2:00 a.m. one month ago today, leaving Haiti with no president and two prime ministers. 

We have a constitution and a bevy of administrative laws, but none addresses the current scenario. So a  predictable fight for power ensued, as three men rose to the fore: an acting prime minister, a designated prime minister, and the president of the Senate. A fourth person who surely would have been considered, the president of the country’s Supreme Court, had died two weeks earlier.

All three pretenders offered plausible but tortured claims. (**See below.)

After a few days, the designated prime minister Ariel Henry, a neuro-surgeon, won the position with international support. Almost everyone expected him to govern through a “political accord.” Of course, there are other ways to provide for novel issues, such as legislative intent. But Haiti has no such traditions. Here, we use “political accords”-- code language for a cake sharing exercise, whereby politicians and other actors divide ministries and other cash-handling government offices. Some are more valuable than others. Finance. Public Works. Foreign Affairs. Health (in the age of Covid-19). The social security office. The vehicle insurance bureau. The tax authorities. For lesser players, there is the Ministry of Women’s Affairs.

Defying expectations, the new Prime Minister formed a government all by himself, in the mold of the late President. As it was dryly noted, “Jovenel Moise is dead; long live Jovenel Moise.” And he did so after reaching an accord with numerous established opposition parties. Once in office, he reneged on the agreement. He would not or could not deliver key promises. The political parties shrieked in disbelief and indignation.

The issue of post-Jovenel governance remains, therefore, unsettled. Many actors demand the appointment of a president but Prime Minister Henry disagrees: "Haiti's next President will be an elected president." 

Two visions collide. The first is to do only the minimum required to organize elections. The second is to use this unexpected void as an opportunity to reshape Haitian politics, if not the whole society, before elections. This second group wants a "national dialogue," the recall of numerous decrees published by the late President, the promulgation of a new constitution, etc. Democratic principles notwithstanding, most organized groups bend towards the second option.

The conundrum is more solvable than imagined. 

There are roughly 40 deciding actors: the Prime Minister, the ten remaining senators, about a dozen successful political parties, and a handful of established civil society organizations. Even if we admit twice the number, that's not many people. Let them all go on a weekend retreat and return with a plan. There would be no one left to protest. 

Alternatively, we should conduct a national survey -- Plan A: with only a prime minister, the government organizes elections within six months. Plan B: with a president and a prime minister, the government is granted 12 months to propose a new constitution and organize elections. 

Both options would involve a cabinet reshuffle to be more "inclusive," a new electoral council, and better public safety as well as food security measures.

And then peace. At least until the next elections. 

**N.B.: The acting prime minister was still in office when the killing happened. (He was “acting” because he was “filling in” the position after the previous prime minister resigned two months earlier. His “real” position was minister of foreign affairs.) He had submitted a letter of resignation and congratulated the designated prime minister, though he apparently had not vacated the official residence.

The designated prime minister too was wobbly. While Jovenel Moise had named him as the nation’s second in command and published his name in Le Moniteur, the governmental register, there had been no installation ceremony. Haitian law may technically not require such a ceremony for prime ministers, but tradition demands it. At any rate, that prime minister had yet to enter his new office. After the assassination, he went into hiding for a few days.

Haiti’s Senate joined the fray, though having only ten members out of the 30 constitutionally required. Despite the lack of quorum, they voted their leader Haiti’s president. According to the Constitution, the National Assembly chooses the country’s president in case of a presidential vacancy in years four and five of a term. But the National Assembly consists of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, so ten senators cannot that body make.

Other forces are relevant: the established political class and civil society. The former has proven so incapable as to be irrelevant if not contemptable. The latter is struggling to establish legitimacy or demonstrate force. And the international community remains powerful.